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This week's spread indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Patriots, who are a huge favorite by 7 points.Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New England Patriots to pass on 51.7% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.In terms of a defense's effect on pace, at 28.93 seconds per play, the model projects the New England Patriots as the 8th-most sluggish in football (adjusted for context) at the moment.Windy weather conditions (like the 19-mph being forecasted in this game) generally correlate with worse passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and increased rush volume.Mack Hollins's 17.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 26.1.
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