Mack Hollins Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 21

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Mack Hollins

NFL · Player Props

Mack Hollins

WR · New England Patriots

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots · Week 21, 2025

Updated Jan 25, 2026 6:57 PM UTC

Analysis

Mack Hollins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+105/-135).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the model to have only 130.4 total plays called: the fewest out of all the games this week.
The Denver Broncos defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (32.5 per game) this year.
The Patriots O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

With a 4-point advantage, the Patriots are favored this week, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New England Patriots to pass on 55.4% of their chances: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
The Patriots have run the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 47.3 plays per game.
When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Denver's collection of LBs has been terrific this year, profiling as the 9th-best in the league.

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