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Mack Hollins

Mack Hollins Receptions
Player Prop Week 15

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Mack Hollins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-130/-102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +106 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -102.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect the New England Patriots to be the 5th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.0% pass rate.
  • The New England Patriots O-line grades out as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
  • Mack Hollins's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 66.2% to 73.9%.
  • The Buffalo cornerbacks project as the 3rd-worst collection of CBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Patriots are forecasted by the model to run just 61.9 total plays in this game: the fewest among all teams this week.
  • Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Bills, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 29.5 per game) this year.
  • The Buffalo Bills pass defense has conceded the 10th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (62.9%) vs. WRs this year (62.9%).

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