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Mack Hollins

Mack Hollins Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 15

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Mack Hollins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-110/-118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 29.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 27.5 @ -118.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect the New England Patriots to be the 5th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.0% pass rate.
  • After totaling 40.0 air yards per game last season, Mack Hollins has made big progress this season, currently sitting at 46.0 per game.
  • The New England Patriots O-line grades out as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
  • Mack Hollins's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 66.2% to 73.9%.
  • Mack Hollins ranks as one of the most effective receivers in the NFL, averaging a terrific 9.44 adjusted yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 89th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Patriots are forecasted by the model to run just 61.9 total plays in this game: the fewest among all teams this week.
  • Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Bills, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 29.5 per game) this year.
  • Mack Hollins's ability to pick up extra yardage has worsened this season, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 2.68 rate last season.
  • This year, the daunting Bills defense has given up a puny 128.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing wideouts: the 9th-fewest in football.
  • The Buffalo Bills pass defense has conceded the 10th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (62.9%) vs. WRs this year (62.9%).

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