Mack Hollins Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

NFL · Player Props

Mack Hollins

WR · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving TD

New Orleans Saints vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 6:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Mack Hollins Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+321/-592).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -589 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -592.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Mack Hollins to be a much bigger part of his team's passing offense near the end zone this week (15.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (9.5% in games he has played).
Mack Hollins has posted quite a few more air yards this year (59.0 per game) than he did last year (27.0 per game).
Mack Hollins's 36.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 14.6.
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 7th-slowest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 28.72 seconds per snap.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 7th-least in football.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Las Vegas Raiders have utilized play action on a measly 16.4% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (least in football), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.
The Las Vegas Raiders have elected to go for it on 4th down just 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in the NFL), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.