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Mac Jones

Mac Jones TD Passes
Player Prop Week 8

Houston Texans vs San Francisco 49ers

 
 
 
Mac Jones TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+155/-174).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +156 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +155.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The San Francisco 49ers will be forced to utilize backup QB Mac Jones in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
  • At a -3-point disadvantage, the 49ers are underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting more of a focus on throwing than their normal game plan.
  • Our trusted projections expect the San Francisco 49ers as the 7th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 60.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • Our trusted projections expect the San Francisco 49ers to call the 4th-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.0 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
  • The largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the San Francisco 49ers this year (a whopping 63.7 per game on average).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the moment, the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the league in the red zone (53.5% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the 49ers.
  • As it relates to pass-blocking (and the importance it has on all air attack statistics), the offensive line of the 49ers profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 4th-lowest clip in the league against the Houston Texans defense this year (65.5% Adjusted Completion%).
  • The Houston Texans defense has surrendered the fewest passing TDs in football: 0.67 per game this year.
  • When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, Houston's group of LBs has been fantastic this year, ranking as the 9th-best in football.

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