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Mac Jones

Mac Jones TD Passes
Player Prop Week 3

San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals

 
 
 
Mac Jones TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+120/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -160.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The 49ers will be rolling with backup QB Mac Jones in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
  • Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the San Francisco 49ers are predicted by the projections to run 65.3 total plays in this contest: the 7th-highest number among all teams this week.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game against the Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in the league.
  • Mac Jones's 68.1% Adjusted Completion% this year shows a significant gain in his passing accuracy over last year's 64.9% mark.
  • Opposing teams have completed passes at the 2nd-highest clip in football against the Cardinals defense since the start of last season (74.4% Adjusted Completion%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the 49ers to pass on 55.5% of their plays: the 9th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
  • The model projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 10th-least pass-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 54.6% red zone pass rate.
  • With an awful rate of only 1.00 per game (24th percentile), Mac Jones rates as one of the weakest touchdown passers in the league since the start of last season.
  • The Arizona Cardinals defense has surrendered the 3rd-fewest passing touchdowns in the NFL: 1.21 per game since the start of last season.
  • As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Arizona's CB corps has been excellent since the start of last season, grading out as the 4th-best in the league.

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