Mac Jones TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Mac Jones

NFL · Player Props

Mac Jones

QB · New England Patriots

TD Passes

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM EST

Analysis

Mac Jones TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-190/+160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +205 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are massive underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach.
Right now, the 10th-most pass-focused team in football near the end zone (58.0% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the New England Patriots.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the New England Patriots are projected by the projections to run 65.5 total plays in this game: the 8th-highest number among all teams this week.
This year, the shaky Buffalo Bills defense has given up a massive 77.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 4th-largest rate in the league.

Favors Under

Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being predicted in this game) usually lead to decreased passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and higher run volume.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Buffalo Bills, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 31.7 per game) this year.
The New England Patriots O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Bills defense has surrendered the fewest passing TDs in the NFL: 0.67 per game this year.
As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Buffalo's CB corps has been outstanding this year, projecting as the 6th-best in the league.

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