Mac Jones TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Mac Jones

NFL · Player Props

Mac Jones

QB · New England Patriots

TD Passes

Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Mac Jones TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+170/-230).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the New England Patriots are projected by our trusted projection set to run 64.4 total plays in this contest: the 8th-highest number on the slate this week.
The Patriots have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 61.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 9th-highest level in football versus the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year (74.1% Adjusted Completion%).
This year, the shaky Raiders defense has been gouged for a staggering 1.60 passing touchdowns per game to opposing offenses: the 6th-largest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

With a 57.8% rate of passing the ball (context-neutralized) this year, the 7th-least pass-oriented offense in football has been the Patriots.
In this game, Mac Jones is expected by the predictive model to average the 7th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 36.4.
Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the Raiders, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 33.8 per game) this year.
The New England O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers grade out as the 10th-worst LB corps in the league this year in pass coverage.

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