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Mac Jones

Mac Jones TD Passes
Player Prop Week 6

Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots

Mac Jones TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+170/-230).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the New England Patriots are projected by our trusted projection set to run 64.4 total plays in this contest: the 8th-highest number on the slate this week.

The Patriots have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 61.4 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 9th-highest level in football versus the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year (74.1% Adjusted Completion%).

This year, the shaky Raiders defense has been gouged for a staggering 1.60 passing touchdowns per game to opposing offenses: the 6th-largest rate in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 57.8% rate of passing the ball (context-neutralized) this year, the 7th-least pass-oriented offense in football has been the Patriots.

In this game, Mac Jones is expected by the predictive model to average the 7th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 36.4.

Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the Raiders, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 33.8 per game) this year.

The New England O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing game statistics across the board.

The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers grade out as the 10th-worst LB corps in the league this year in pass coverage.

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