Mac Jones TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Mac Jones

NFL · Player Props

Mac Jones

QB · New England Patriots

TD Passes

New England Patriots vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Mac Jones TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+175/-220).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -200 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -220.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
The Patriots rank as the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 62.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The New England Patriots have called the 3rd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 53.9 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game against the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season: 7th-least in the league.
Mac Jones has been among the bottom touchdown passers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a paltry 1.00 per game while ranking in the 22nd percentile.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 4th-lowest rate in football vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season (67.1%).
The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks project as the 2nd-best group of CBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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