Mac Jones TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 11

NFL · Player Props

Mac Jones

QB · New England Patriots

TD Passes

New England Patriots vs New York Jets · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:21 PM EST

Analysis

Mac Jones TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+167/-222).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +171 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +167.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the New York Jets defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
The New England Patriots have gone up against a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have stacked the box against opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New England Patriots have incorporated some form of misdirection on 52.8% of their plays since the start of last season (8th-most in the league), which can make an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Favors Under

The Patriots are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 7th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Patriots rank as the 10th-least pass-oriented offense in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 49.6% red zone pass rate.
The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 55.3 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.