Mac Jones Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Mac Jones

NFL · Player Props

Mac Jones

QB · New England Patriots

Rushing Yards

New England Patriots vs New York Jets · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Mac Jones Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-105/-125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 7th-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 46.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Mac Jones to notch 4.3 carries in this week's game, on average: the 9th-most of all quarterbacks.

Favors Under

The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 55.3 plays per game.
The New York Jets defense owns the 5th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, surrendering just 4.18 yards-per-carry.
The New York Jets defensive tackles profile as the 4th-best unit in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.
The New England Patriots have gone up against a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have stacked the box against opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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