Mac Jones Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Mac Jones

NFL · Player Props

Mac Jones

QB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New York Jets · Week 15, 2024

Updated Dec 16, 2024 12:46 AM EST

Analysis

Mac Jones Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 200.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 204.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 200.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jaguars will be forced to start backup QB Mac Jones in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Jaguars are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
The Jaguars offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all air attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 8th-least pass-centric team in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 58.6% pass rate.
The predictive model expects the Jaguars to call the 10th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.1 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The Jaguars have run the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 52.4 plays per game.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being projected in this game) generally prompt decreased passing effectiveness, lower air attack volume, and increased run volume.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game versus the New York Jets defense this year: 7th-fewest in football.

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