Mac Jones Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Mac Jones

NFL · Player Props

Mac Jones

QB · New England Patriots

Completions

New England Patriots vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 8:36 PM EST

Analysis

Mac Jones Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (+102/-136).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
The Patriots rank as the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 62.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The New England Patriots have called the 3rd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 53.9 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game against the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season: 7th-least in the league.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 4th-lowest rate in football vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season (67.1%).
The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks project as the 2nd-best group of CBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season.

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