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Luther Burden III

Luther Burden III Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 12

Chicago Bears vs Pittsburgh Steelers

 
 
 
Luther Burden III Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+370/-390).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -530 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -390.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At just 28.07 seconds per play, the Chicago Bears offense ranks as the 8th-fastest paced in football (context-neutralized) this year.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 40.5 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense this year: most in the league.
  • The Chicago offensive line profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all air attack stats across the board.
  • Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 7th-highest level in the league against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year (73.4% Adjusted Completion%).
  • This year, the tough Pittsburgh Steelers run defense has surrendered a feeble 0.70 touchdowns on the ground per game to the opposing side: the 6th-best rate in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Chicago Bears to be the 7th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 55.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • The projections expect the Chicago Bears to be the 8th-most run-heavy team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 47.7% red zone run rate.

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