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Luther Burden III

Luther Burden III Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

Philadelphia Eagles vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
Luther Burden III Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-152/+142).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +109 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +142.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • An extreme passing game script is implied by the Bears being an enormous -7-point underdog in this week's contest.
  • The projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.1 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Chicago Bears have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a staggering 60.2 plays per game.
  • When talking about pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Bears grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Bears rank as the 10th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 58.8% pass rate.
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 16-mph being projected in this game) generally mean decreased passing efficiency, reduced pass volume, and increased run volume.
  • The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has given up the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (57.6%) vs. wideouts this year (57.6%).
  • The Philadelphia Eagles linebackers project as the best LB corps in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

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