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Luther Burden III

Luther Burden III Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 7

Chicago Bears vs New Orleans Saints

 
 
 
Luther Burden III Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-106/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -106.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have 140.1 total plays called: the highest number among all games this week.
  • The Chicago offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing attack stats across the board.
  • This year, the deficient New Orleans Saints defense has surrendered the 9th-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing wide receivers: a monstrous 8.74 yards.
  • The New Orleans cornerbacks rank as the 6th-worst collection of CBs in the league this year in defending receivers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's line indicates a rushing game script for the Bears, who are favored by 3.5 points.
  • The model projects the Chicago Bears as the 3rd-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 51.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • The weatherman calls for 21-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Saints defense this year: 7th-fewest in football.

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