My Account Log Out

reorder

Luke Musgrave

Luke Musgrave Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 6

Green Bay Packers vs Cincinnati Bengals

Luke Musgrave Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+790/-1100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1050 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Opposing offenses have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.

Luke Musgrave comes in as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the league among tight ends, hauling in an exceptional 83.5% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, ranking in the 78th percentile.

The Cincinnati Bengals defense has been torched for the 2nd-most receiving TDs in the NFL to TEs: 0.80 per game this year.

The Bengals safeties project as the 4th-best safety corps in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 14-point advantage, the Packers are a huge favorite in this game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.

The model projects the Packers to be the least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 53.5% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The Packers have been the 9th-most run-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) this year with a 52.0% red zone run rate.

The model projects the Green Bay Packers offense to be the 10th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.05 seconds per snap.

The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

More Luke Musgrave Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™