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Luke Musgrave

Luke Musgrave Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Dallas Cowboys vs Green Bay Packers

Luke Musgrave Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1100/-2800).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +1100 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +1100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 10th-most pass-heavy team in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 57.6% red zone pass rate.

The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.

The Green Bay offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 5th-highest level in the league versus the Cowboys defense since the start of last season (73.0% Adjusted Completion%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Packers are a 6.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a running game script.

The projections expect the Packers to run the 6th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

The Packers have run the 4th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling just 55.3 plays per game.

Opposing offenses have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game versus the Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 3rd-fewest in football.

With a measly 0.0% Red Zone Target Rate (1st percentile) this year, Luke Musgrave ranks as one of the tight ends with the most usage near the goal line in the NFL.

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