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Luke Musgrave

Luke Musgrave Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

Cleveland Browns vs Green Bay Packers

Luke Musgrave Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+860/-1150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1900 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1150.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Packers to be the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 58.4% red zone pass rate.

When it comes to pocket protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Green Bay Packers ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.

Luke Musgrave comes in as one of the best possession receivers in football among tight ends, catching a fantastic 82.1% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, grading out in the 75th percentile.

As it relates to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, Cleveland's collection of DEs has been very good since the start of last season, ranking as the best in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Packers being a giant 7-point favorite in this game.

The leading projections forecast the Packers to call the 7th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.

The smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Packers since the start of last season (a lowly 55.2 per game on average).

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.7 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season: 3rd-fewest in the NFL.

With a measly 0.0% Red Zone Target% (1st percentile) this year, Luke Musgrave rates as one of the TEs with the most usage near the goal line in the NFL.

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