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Luke Musgrave

Luke Musgrave Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 19

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers

 
 
 
Luke Musgrave Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+510/-560).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -720 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -560.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Green Bay Packers will be starting backup QB Clayton Tune in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
  • The leading projections forecast this game to see the fewest plays run among all games this week at 128.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • While Luke Musgrave has earned 1.4% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a much bigger part of Green Bay's pass game near the goal line in this week's game at 8.8%.
  • Luke Musgrave's 15.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 9.6.
  • The Bears pass defense has yielded the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (81.5%) vs. tight ends this year (81.5%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 2nd-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • With a 51.5% rate of running the ball in the red zone (context-neutralized) this year, the 6th-most run-heavy team in the NFL in this setting has been the Green Bay Packers.
  • The 4th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Packers this year (just 54.9 per game on average).
  • The weather forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Bears defense this year: 6th-fewest in the league.

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