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Luke Musgrave

Luke Musgrave Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

Green Bay Packers vs Baltimore Ravens

 
 
 
Luke Musgrave Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+670/-950).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1200 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -950.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Green Bay Packers may take to the air less in this contest (and call more rushes) since they be rolling with backup QB Malik Willis.
  • The Ravens defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (39.5 per game) this year.
  • The predictive model expects Luke Musgrave to be a more integral piece of his offense's air attack near the end zone this week (10.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (1.4% in games he has played).
  • After accumulating 9.0 air yards per game last year, Luke Musgrave has posted big gains this year, currently averaging 17.0 per game.
  • Luke Musgrave's 16.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 9.6.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The projections expect the Green Bay Packers as the 3rd-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 51.3% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • The Green Bay Packers have been the 7th-most run-focused team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year with a 51.9% red zone run rate.
  • Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Packers are projected by the predictive model to run just 59.6 plays on offense in this game: the lowest number among all teams this week.
  • Luke Musgrave grades out in the 1st percentile among tight ends as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a lowly 0.00 per game.
  • The Baltimore Ravens defense has yielded the 4th-fewest TDs through the air in football to TEs: 0.27 per game this year.

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