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Luke Musgrave Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers

Luke Musgrave Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+630/-650).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -730 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -650.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

While Luke Musgrave has garnered 1.6% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a much bigger part of Green Bay's passing offense near the end zone in this game at 9.1%.

After accumulating 9.0 air yards per game last season, Luke Musgrave has posted big gains this season, currently pacing 16.0 per game.

Luke Musgrave's 15.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 9.6.

The Chicago Bears pass defense has allowed the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (81%) versus tight ends this year (81.0%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 51.1% rate of running the ball in the red zone (context-neutralized) this year, the 10th-most run-centric offense in the league in these cases has been the Packers.

Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Packers are projected by the model to run just 62.8 offensive plays in this contest: the 4th-lowest number on the slate this week.

The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.

This year, Luke Musgrave has not caught any receiving touchdowns this year.

The Chicago Bears defense has conceded the 6th-fewest receiving touchdowns in the NFL to tight ends: 0.36 per game this year.

More Luke Musgrave Player Props

Luke Musgrave TouchdownsPlayer Prop Week 16

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers

Luke Musgrave Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16