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Luke Musgrave

Luke Musgrave Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 13

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers

 
 
 
Luke Musgrave Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+760/-770).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1000 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -770.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -3-point disadvantage, the Packers are underdogs in this game, implying more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.
  • Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Packers to pass on 60.4% of their plays: the 8th-highest rate on the slate this week.
  • The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
  • While Luke Musgrave has garnered 0.0% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a much bigger part of Green Bay's pass game near the goal line in this contest at 8.7%.
  • Luke Musgrave rates as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the league among TEs, catching an outstanding 82.5% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 76th percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 55.1% rate of running the ball in the red zone (context-neutralized) this year, the 5th-most run-oriented team in the NFL in these situations has been the Green Bay Packers.
  • The projections expect the Packers to run the 3rd-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.9 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
  • This year, Luke Musgrave has not caught any receiving TDs this year.
  • This year, the tough Detroit Lions defense has given up a feeble 68.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 4th-smallest rate in football.

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