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Luke Musgrave

Luke Musgrave Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 12

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
Luke Musgrave Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+435/-680).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +610 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +435.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The leading projections forecast Luke Musgrave to be a more important option in his offense's passing game near the end zone in this game (10.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
  • Luke Musgrave checks in as one of the most reliable receivers in the NFL among tight ends, completing an outstanding 87.3% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 75th percentile.
  • The Minnesota Vikings defense has allowed the 6th-most receiving touchdowns in the NFL to tight ends: 0.60 per game this year.
  • This year, the fierce Minnesota Vikings run defense has yielded a puny 0.80 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing teams: the 9th-lowest rate in the league.
  • The Vikings defensive tackles rank as the 3rd-best group of DTs in the league this year in regard to run defense.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A rushing game script is implied by the Packers being a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest.
  • The projections expect the Green Bay Packers to be the 5th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 54.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • With a 53.7% rate of running the ball near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year, the 9th-most run-centric offense in football under these circumstances has been the Packers.
  • At the present time, the 6th-most sluggish paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the model is the Packers.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Vikings defense this year: 5th-fewest in football.

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