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Luke Musgrave

Luke Musgrave Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 10

Green Bay Packers vs Philadelphia Eagles

 
 
 
Luke Musgrave Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+325/-385).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -380 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -385.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally prompt increased passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower run volume.
  • While Luke Musgrave has received 0.0% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be much more involved in Green Bay's offense near the end zone in this game at 13.7%.
  • Luke Musgrave grades out as one of the most reliable receivers in the league among tight ends, completing an impressive 90.0% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 76th percentile.
  • When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Philadelphia's unit has been awful this year, profiling as the worst in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Packers rank as the 6th-most run-focused team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year with a 54.1% red zone run rate.
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Green Bay Packers are predicted by the projections to call only 60.4 total plays in this game: the lowest number on the slate this week.
  • Luke Musgrave ranks in the 1st percentile among TEs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging just 0.00 per game.
  • This year, the imposing Eagles defense has allowed a puny 67.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 3rd-smallest rate in the NFL.
  • This year, the tough Eagles defense has yielded a mere 0.12 TDs through the air per game to opposing TEs: the best rate in the NFL.

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