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Luke Musgrave Receptions
Player Prop Week 19

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers

Luke Musgrave Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -145.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Green Bay Packers will be starting backup QB Clayton Tune in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.

The leading projections forecast this game to see the fewest plays run among all games this week at 128.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Luke Musgrave's 15.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 9.6.

The Bears pass defense has yielded the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (81.5%) vs. tight ends this year (81.5%).

The Bears linebackers grade out as the worst group of LBs in football this year in regard to rushing the passer.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 2nd-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

The 4th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Packers this year (just 54.9 per game on average).

The weather forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

Opposing QBs have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Bears defense this year: 6th-fewest in the league.

The Green Bay Packers offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

More Luke Musgrave Player Props

Luke Musgrave ReceptionsPlayer Prop Week 19

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers

Luke Musgrave Receptions
Player Prop Week 19