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Luke Musgrave

Luke Musgrave Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Green Bay Packers vs Baltimore Ravens

 
 
 
Luke Musgrave Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-194/+152).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +104 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +152.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Green Bay Packers may take to the air less in this contest (and call more rushes) since they be rolling with backup QB Malik Willis.
  • The Ravens defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (39.5 per game) this year.
  • While Luke Musgrave has been responsible for 7.5% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a much bigger part of Green Bay's pass game in this contest at 12.8%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The projections expect the Green Bay Packers as the 3rd-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 51.3% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Packers are projected by the predictive model to run just 59.6 plays on offense in this game: the lowest number among all teams this week.
  • When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Baltimore's safety corps has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the best in the NFL.

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