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Luke Musgrave

Luke Musgrave Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions

Luke Musgrave Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-225/+165).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -220 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -225.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Green Bay Packers as the 9th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 59.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Opposing QBs have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game versus the Lions defense last year: 4th-most in the league.

In regards to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Green Bay Packers profiles as the 6th-best in football last year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Packers are predicted by our trusted projection set to run only 62.1 plays on offense in this game: the 3rd-fewest among all teams this week.

The 5th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Green Bay Packers last year (just 55.7 per game on average).

With a feeble 1.0 adjusted receptions per game (12th percentile) last year, Luke Musgrave ranks as one of the bottom pass-catching TEs in the league.

The Lions pass defense has conceded the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (68.6%) versus tight ends last year (68.6%).

As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Detroit's collection of safeties has been exceptional last year, grading out as the best in the league.

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