Luke Musgrave Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Luke Musgrave

NFL · Player Props

Luke Musgrave

TE · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Las Vegas Raiders vs Green Bay Packers · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 10, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Luke Musgrave Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+140/-185).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -170 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -185.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Packers to be the 7th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.8% pass rate.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide.
The projections expect Luke Musgrave to notch 5.3 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 85th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Luke Musgrave has been in the 81st percentile among TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) with a massive 27.5 figure this year.
The the Packers O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Packers to run the fewest total plays among all teams this week with 61.1 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Packers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 52.0 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game against the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year: fewest in football.
As it relates to defensive ends rushing the passer, Las Vegas's collection of DEs has been exceptional this year, projecting as the 2nd-best in football.

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