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Luke Musgrave

Luke Musgrave Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 6

Green Bay Packers vs Cincinnati Bengals

 
 
 
Luke Musgrave Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-134/+106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +114 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +106.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
  • Luke Musgrave comes in as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the league among tight ends, hauling in an exceptional 83.5% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, ranking in the 78th percentile.
  • The Cincinnati Bengals defense has given up the 2nd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (71.0) vs. tight ends this year.
  • The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has displayed poor efficiency against TEs this year, yielding 8.26 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-most in the NFL.
  • The Bengals linebackers project as the 6th-worst LB corps in football this year in pass coverage.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 14-point advantage, the Packers are a huge favorite in this game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.
  • The model projects the Packers to be the least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 53.5% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • The model projects the Green Bay Packers offense to be the 10th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.05 seconds per snap.
  • The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
  • Luke Musgrave has gone out for fewer passes this year (16.3% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (28.7%).

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