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Luke Musgrave

Luke Musgrave Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 13

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers

 
 
 
Luke Musgrave Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-116/-108).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -3-point disadvantage, the Packers are underdogs in this game, implying more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.
  • Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Packers to pass on 60.4% of their plays: the 8th-highest rate on the slate this week.
  • The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
  • Luke Musgrave rates as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the league among TEs, catching an outstanding 82.5% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 76th percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The projections expect the Packers to run the 3rd-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.9 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
  • With a bad 11.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (17th percentile) this year, Luke Musgrave ranks among the worst TEs in the pass game in football.
  • With a feeble 6.6 adjusted yards per target (22nd percentile) this year, Luke Musgrave has been among the worst pass-game TEs in the league.
  • With a poor 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (2nd percentile) this year, Luke Musgrave stands among the top TE receiving threats in the NFL in the open field.
  • This year, the tough Detroit Lions defense has given up a feeble 68.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 4th-smallest rate in football.

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