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Luke Musgrave

Luke Musgrave Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 10

Green Bay Packers vs Philadelphia Eagles

 
 
 
Luke Musgrave Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-130/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 30.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 29.5 @ -105.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally prompt increased passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower run volume.
  • The model projects Luke Musgrave to be a much bigger part of his team's passing attack in this week's game (14.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (4.4% in games he has played).
  • Luke Musgrave grades out as one of the most reliable receivers in the league among tight ends, completing an impressive 90.0% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 76th percentile.
  • When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Philadelphia's unit has been awful this year, profiling as the worst in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Green Bay Packers are predicted by the projections to call only 60.4 total plays in this game: the lowest number on the slate this week.
  • This year, the imposing Eagles defense has allowed a puny 67.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 3rd-smallest rate in the NFL.
  • This year, the formidable Eagles defense has allowed the least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing TEs: a mere 5.8 yards.

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