Luke Musgrave Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Luke Musgrave

NFL · Player Props

Luke Musgrave

TE · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions · Week 4, 2023

Updated Sep 29, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Luke Musgrave Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (-135/+105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Green Bay Packers to be the 10th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 62.7% pass rate.
Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being called for in this game) generally correlate with increased passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and reduced ground volume.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game against the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the league.
The projections expect Luke Musgrave to accumulate 5.4 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 89th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Luke Musgrave grades out in the 91st percentile among TEs this year with a colossal 16.3% of his offense's air yards accumulated.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Packers to run the 6th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Green Bay Packers have run the 7th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 56.0 plays per game.

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