Luke Musgrave Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Luke Musgrave

NFL · Player Props

Luke Musgrave

TE · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Luke Musgrave Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Packers are underdogs in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the projection model to see 131.1 total plays called: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.3 pass attempts per game versus the Chargers defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
Luke Musgrave has run a route on 75.6% of his team's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 87th percentile among tight ends.
The predictive model expects Luke Musgrave to notch 5.2 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

The Green Bay Packers have run the 7th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 55.1 plays per game.
The Chargers pass defense has performed very well when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.41 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-fewest in the league.

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