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Luke Farrell

Luke Farrell Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

San Francisco 49ers vs Jacksonville Jaguars

 
 
 
Luke Farrell Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1000/-4500).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -980 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -4500.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The 49ers may pass less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to start backup quarterback Brock Purdy.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 35.0 pass attempts per game versus the Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the league.
  • Since the start of last season, the porous Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has been torched for a staggering 78.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the 8th-worst rate in football.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has conceded the 8th-most touchdowns through the air in the league to TEs: 0.40 per game since the start of last season.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 3-point advantage, the 49ers are favored in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.
  • The model projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 5th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 53.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • Right now, the 9th-most run-focused offense in football near the end zone (45.7% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the San Francisco 49ers.
  • Right now, the 3rd-slowest paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the San Francisco 49ers.
  • As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, Jacksonville's collection of LBs has been terrific since the start of last season, ranking as the 2nd-best in football.

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