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Luke Farrell

Luke Farrell Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals

 
 
 
Luke Farrell Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+820/-2400).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +970 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +820.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The 49ers will be rolling with backup QB Mac Jones in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
  • Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the San Francisco 49ers are predicted by the projections to run 65.3 total plays in this contest: the 7th-highest number among all teams this week.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game against the Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in the league.
  • Opposing teams have completed passes at the 2nd-highest clip in football against the Cardinals defense since the start of last season (74.4% Adjusted Completion%).
  • As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, Arizona's collection of DTs has been outstanding since the start of last season, profiling as the 6th-best in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the 49ers to pass on 55.5% of their plays: the 10th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
  • Right now, the 10th-most run-focused team in the league in the red zone (45.4% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the San Francisco 49ers.
  • The Cardinals defense has yielded the fewest touchdowns through the air in football to TEs: 0.11 per game since the start of last season.

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