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Luke Farrell

Luke Farrell Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers

 
 
 
Luke Farrell Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+800/-1550).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +840 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +800.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see 131.1 total plays called: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week.
  • The 6th-most plays in the league have been run by the San Francisco 49ers this year (a colossal 59.9 per game on average).
  • The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.
  • The Cardinals defense has been something of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (36.2 per game) this year.
  • Luke Farrell's 100.0% Adjusted Completion Rate this year illustrates a substantial boost in his receiving proficiency over last year's 69.1% rate.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's line indicates a rushing game script for the 49ers, who are favored by 3.5 points.
  • Luke Farrell has totaled a feeble 3.0 air yards per game this year: just 25th percentile when it comes to TEs.
  • The San Francisco O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
  • The Cardinals pass defense has conceded the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (71.3%) to tight ends this year (71.3%).
  • This year, the stout Cardinals defense has yielded a puny 0.33 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing tight ends: the 8th-smallest rate in the league.

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