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Luke Farrell

Luke Farrell Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 5

Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers

 
 
 
Luke Farrell Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -115.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The San Francisco 49ers will be rolling out backup QB Mac Jones this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
  • At a -5.5-point disadvantage, the 49ers are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their standard game plan.
  • Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the 49ers to pass on 62.2% of their downs: the 3rd-greatest clip among all teams this week.
  • The model projects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 137.2 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
  • The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 60.2 plays per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Luke Farrell grades out as one of the worst tight ends in football at generating extra yardage, averaging just 1.76 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 25th percentile.
  • The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has allowed the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (73.5%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (73.5%).
  • As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Los Angeles's LB corps has been one of the most skilled this year, projecting as the 4th-best in the league.

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