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Logan Thomas Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-170/+140).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Commanders are a big 13.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.The projections expect the Commanders to be the most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 66.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.6 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.Logan Thomas has run a route on 75.6% of his team's passing plays this year, putting him in the 88th percentile among TEs.In this week's contest, Logan Thomas is anticipated by our trusted projection set to finish in the 77th percentile among tight ends with 4.1 targets.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being predicted in this game) usually mean lessened passing effectiveness, reduced air attack volume, and increased ground volume.Opposing teams have averaged 30.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Cowboys defense this year: 2nd-fewest in football.This year, the fierce Cowboys defense has allowed a meager 69.9% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 9th-best rate in the NFL.As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Dallas's LB corps has been terrific this year, projecting as the 6th-best in the league.
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