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Logan Thomas

Logan Thomas Receptions
Player Prop Week 10

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders

Logan Thomas Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+188/-250).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -204 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -250.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Washington Commanders will be starting backup QB Taylor Heinicke in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.

The Commanders are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run on the slate this week at 132.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Washington Commanders have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 61.7 plays per game.

The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the least pass-centric team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 58.8% pass rate.

Logan Thomas has been used less as a potential target this year (61.2% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (82.5%).

The Washington Commanders O-line ranks as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.

Logan Thomas's possession skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 72.2% to 58.2%.

The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has given up the 3rd-lowest Completion% in football (61.4%) vs. tight ends this year (61.4%).

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