Logan Thomas Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Logan Thomas

NFL · Player Props

Logan Thomas

TE · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 8:06 PM EST

Analysis

Logan Thomas Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-113/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 36.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 35.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Commanders offensive approach to lean 12.6% more towards the passing game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy now calling the plays.
The predictive model expects the Commanders as the most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 64.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
In this contest, Logan Thomas is predicted by the projections to finish in the 91st percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.9 targets.
After totaling 29.0 air yards per game last year, Logan Thomas has posted big gains this year, now sitting at 47.0 per game.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Commanders to run the 4th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has been quite strong when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.31 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-fewest in football.
When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Atlanta's safety corps has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the 4th-best in the league.

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