Logan Thomas Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Logan Thomas

NFL · Player Props

Logan Thomas

TE · Washington Commanders

Receiving TD

Washington Commanders vs New York Giants · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 1:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Logan Thomas Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+435/-991).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -916 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -991.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Logan Thomas has been a key part of his team's offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 14.6% this year, which puts him in the 82nd percentile among TEs.
Logan Thomas has posted a whopping 28.0 air yards per game this year: 81st percentile among tight ends.
The New York Giants pass defense has conceded the 5th-highest Completion% in football (78.7%) vs. tight ends this year (78.7%).
The New York Giants linebackers grade out as the 3rd-worst unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Washington Commanders O-line has given their quarterback 2.75 seconds before the pass (2nd-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 29.22 seconds per snap.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.9 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Giants defense this year: 8th-least in football.
Logan Thomas's 25.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 42.1.
The Washington Commanders O-line ranks as the 3rd-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

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