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Lil'Jordan Humphrey

Lil'Jordan Humphrey Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos

 
 
 
Lil'Jordan Humphrey Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+500/-680).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -660 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -680.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect the Denver Broncos to be the 5th-most pass-oriented team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 60.7% red zone pass rate.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Broncos to call the most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The Broncos have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.5 plays per game.
  • Lil'Jordan Humphrey has compiled many more air yards this season (29.0 per game) than he did last season (16.0 per game).
  • The Denver offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong influence on all pass game metrics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Broncos are a massive 13.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
  • The projections expect the Broncos to be the 11th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 55.1% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Chiefs, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 31.6 per game) this year.
  • Lil'Jordan Humphrey's 65.4% Adjusted Catch% this season illustrates a noteworthy decline in his receiving skills over last season's 71.4% figure.
  • This year, the imposing Chiefs defense has surrendered a paltry 0.67 passing touchdowns per game to opposing WRs: the 7th-best rate in the league.

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