Leonard Fournette Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Leonard Fournette

NFL · Player Props

Leonard Fournette

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rushing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 3, 2022 12:25 AM UTC

Analysis

Leonard Fournette Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 64.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 65.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 64.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 6th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 60.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to accrue 19.5 rush attempts in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 96th percentile among RBs.
Leonard Fournette has been a more important option in his team's rushing attack this year (83.8% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (66.0%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 3rd-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 35.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Leonard Fournette's running effectiveness has worsened this year, averaging a measly 4.02 yards-per-carry vs a 5.01 figure last year.
Leonard Fournette has been among the worst running backs in football at generating extra rushing yardage, averaging a measly 2.47 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 19th percentile.

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