Leonard Fournette Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Leonard Fournette

NFL · Player Props

Leonard Fournette

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Rushing TD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 5:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Leonard Fournette Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+141/-194).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -190 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -194.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run on the slate this week at 137.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 63.1 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 9th-most TDs in football (1.11 per game) against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year.
The Seattle Seahawks defensive ends profile as the 8th-worst collection of DEs in the league this year when it comes to run defense.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have gone no-huddle on 12.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-most in the league). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the least run-oriented team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 31.8% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to be a much smaller part of his offense's run game near the goal line this week (60.2% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (81.0% in games he has played).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year at blocking for rushers.
The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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