Leonard Fournette Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Leonard Fournette

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 10, 2022 2:10 AM UTC

Analysis

Leonard Fournette Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-170/+130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 8th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 9th-most in football.
Leonard Fournette has run a route on 63.6% of his offense's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 98th percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to accrue 5.0 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a massive 10-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The Atlanta Falcons safeties rank as the 9th-best collection of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has given their QB just 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 9th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.