Leonard Fournette Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 19

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Leonard Fournette

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM UTC

Analysis

Leonard Fournette Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+128/-167).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -123 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -167.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 68.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 143.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 63.8 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Favors Under

Leonard Fournette's 17.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 22.3.
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers project as the 6th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has allowed their QB just 2.30 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all air attack stats across the board.
The Dallas Cowboys defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-quickest in the league since the start of last season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have used play action on just 17.2% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (least in the league), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.