Leonard Fournette Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Leonard Fournette

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving TD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Leonard Fournette Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+437/-1000).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -831 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1000.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 6th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 60.8 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.4 pass attempts per game against the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the league.
Leonard Fournette has accrued a monstrous 2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 80th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to be a less important option in his team's pass game near the goal line this week (13.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (20.0% in games he has played).
Leonard Fournette's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 82.7% to 74.0%.
The Kansas City Chiefs defense has surrendered the 7th-least passing TDs in football to RBs: 0.15 per game since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs safeties project as the 10th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has afforded their QB a mere 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass game metrics across the board.