Latavius Murray Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Latavius Murray

NFL · Player Props

Latavius Murray

RB · Denver Broncos

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 18, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Latavius Murray Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-152/+116).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -152.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year in run blocking.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has produced the worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, giving up 6.28 yards-per-carry.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Broncos are a 4-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 2nd-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 38.8% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Latavius Murray to be a much smaller piece of his offense's run game this week (11.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (34.0% in games he has played).
The Los Angeles Chargers defensive tackles rank as the 4th-best group of DTs in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.

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